ACUS11 KWNS 101216
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101216
LAZ000-MSZ000-101345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0412
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0716 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Areas affected...Southern LA into Far Southwest MS

Concerning...Tornado Watch 100...101...

Valid 101216Z - 101345Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 100, 101 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for strong to severe (60 to 80 mph) gusts and
tornadoes remains from southern Louisiana and far southwest
Mississippi.

DISCUSSION...Ongoing convective line exhibited a notable surge over
the past half hour, with storm motion now estimated at 50-55 kt.
Strong to severe gusts continue within this line, as evidenced by
the impressive velocity signature from KLCH as well as the measured
55 kt at WFO LCH. In addition to this surge, the storm motion has
trended a bit more northeasterly, becoming even more perpendicular
to the deep-layer vertical shear. Expectation is for this line to
continue east-northeastward for at least the next few hours. Gusts
from 60-80 mph remain possible within the line, with line-embedded
tornadoes possible as well.

Warm-air advection continues ahead of the line, with a few more
organized cells manifesting within this regime. The overall
parameter space, which is characterized by around 1000 J/kg of
MLCAPE, 50 kt of deep-layer vertical shear, and 200 m2/s2 of 0-1 km
SRH, supports a continued threat for supercells capable of all
hazards, including tornadoes. Main deterrent for storm organization
will be interference with other cells. The warm layer around 700 mb
observed on the 12Z LIX sounding could act to suppress updraft
intensity a bit as well. Even so, the general expectation is for the development of isolated to scattered supercells capable of all
severe hazards.

..Mosier.. 04/10/2024


ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON 29269268 29269333 29709336 30159313 30599310 30869337
31069340 31219285 31359228 31399047 30849000 29579053
29559192 29269268


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